Our final House race ratings chart of the cycle:
| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 (Open) AZ-08 (Giffords) CT-05 (Murphy) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KS-03 (Moore) KY-03 (Yarmuth) MN-01 (Walz) MS-01 (Childers) NY-25 (Open) OR-05 (Open) PA-04 (Altmire) PA-08 (Murphy) TX-23 (Rodriguez) |
AK-AL (Young) AL-05 (Open) AZ-05 (Mitchell) CA-11 (McNerney) CO-04 (Musgrave) FL-24 (Feeney) GA-08 (Marshall) KS-02 (Boyda) IL-11 (Open) MI-09 (Knollenberg) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NC-08 (Hayes) NM-01 (Open) NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-29 (Kuhl) OH-15 (Open) OH-16 (Open) PA-10 (Carney) PA-12 (Murtha) VA-11 (Open) WI-08 (Kagen) |
CA-04 (Open) CT-04 (Shays) FL-08 (Keller) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) ID-01 (Sali) IL-10 (Kirk) IN-03 (Souder) LA-04 (Open) LA-06 (Cazayoux) MD-01 (Open) MI-07 (Walberg) MN-03 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-09 (Open) NE-02 (Terry) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NM-02 (Open) NV-03 (Porter) OH-01 (Chabot) PA-03 (English) PA-11 (Kanjorski) TX-22 (Lampson) WA-08 (Reichert) |
AL-02 (Open) AZ-03 (Shadegg) KY-02 (Open) NJ-05 (Garrett) NV-02 (Heller) NY-26 (Open) OH-02 (Schmidt) SC-01 (Brown) TX-10 (McCaul) VA-02 (Drake) VA-05 (Goode) WV-02 (Capito) WY-AL (Open) |
AL-03 (Rogers) CA-46 (Rohrabacher) CA-50 (Bilbray) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-16 (Mahoney) FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) IA-04 (Latham) LA-01 (Scalise) LA-07 (Boustany) MO-06 (Graves) NC-05 (Foxx) NC-10 (McHenry) OH-07 (Open) PA-15 (Dent) TX-07 (Culberson) VA-10 (Wolf) |
|
12 D, 2 R
|
10 D, 11 R
|
3 D, 22 R
|
13 R
|
1 D, 15 R
|
Safe D:
NY-13 (Open)
Races to Watch:
| CA-03 (Lungren) | IA-05 (King) | KS-04 (Tiahrt) | OK-01 (Sullivan) |
| CA-26 (Dreier) | IL-06 (Roskam) | MD-06 (Bartlett) | PA-05 (Open) |
| CA-45 (B. Mack) | IL-13 (Biggert) | MN-02 (Kline) | PA-06 (Gerlach) |
| GA-06 (Price) | IL-18 (Open) | NJ-04 (Smith) | PA-18 (Murphy) |
| GA-13 (Scott) | IN-04 (Buyer) | OH-03 (Turner) | SC-02 (Wilson) |
Things have changed — a lot — since our first entry back in March.
“Another one bites the dust”
I’m going to find a song that embodies “Second time isn’t the charm” for John Gard. And I’m going to have a song that embodies “We won’t miss you” for Mahoney.
I’d move all the names one column to the left. I’m still looking for 40 or 50 seats (despite my whining about the DCCC leaving some on the table).
James L., you have them properly grouped relative to each other. It’s just that the labels at the tops of the columns are wrong.
You have 22 Dems and 13 Repubs, a total of 35 races, under Lean Dem and Likely Dem. We’ll win 97% of those races. I’m allowing a 1 out of 35 chance that shit could happen. But that is not “Likely” and that is not “Lean.” That is Dem win.
Under Toss-up, you have 25 races. Democrats will win at least 80% of those. (Not including Kanjorski.) That is not “Toss-up” — heads you win, tails you lose. That is heads we win, tails they lose, and a Dem landslide.
Next you have “Lean Repub” but the Democrats will win half of those, or more. So I would call this column Toss-up and look for 7 wins.
What you call “Likely Repub” I’m thinking of as leaning Repub. We’ll lose Mahoney but take at least 5 of theirs. I’ll say 6.
And with a bit of luck we’ll find a couple of nice surprises among the “Races to Watch” and even some wins from outer space.
So 1+13+18+7+6+2 +3 from outer space = 50 Democratic pickups, or 40 if we have a really bad night.
——————-
James L. and Team, Thanks again for all your work on these tables and this blog. It’s great good work and much appreciated.
33 Red to Blue Seats
AL-02
AK-01
AZ-01
CA-04
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-21
FL-24
FL-25
ID-01
IL-10
IL-11
MD-01
MI-07
MI-09
MN-03
MN-06
MO-09
NV-03
NJ-03
NJ-07
NM-01
NM-02
NY-13
NY-25
NY-29
NC-08
OH-01
OH-15
OH-16
PA-03
VA-11
2 Blue to Red
FL-16
PA-11
A net pickup of 31 seats.
or should I stay home and watch the results on TV and on the internet?
I’m sure all the Class of ’06 Dems are safe except Lampson. Most Dems in the “likely” column don’t have serious challengers.
As far as the congressional races in LA go, is LA-04 the only race not decided tonight?